A Bayesian Approach to Historical Climatology for the Burgundian Low Countries in the 15th Century

The authors would like to thank PAGES (Past Global Changes) for supporting the CRIAS working group in this research.

This paper presents a novel approach to assimilate climate information contained in chronicles and annals from the 15th century to generate climate reconstructions of the Burgundian Low Countries, taking into account uncertainties associated with the descriptions of narrative sources. Our study aims to be a first step towards a more quantitative use of available information contained in historical texts, showing how Bayesian inference can help the climate community with this endeavor.