PSR2k scientific goals

The distribution of Ocean2k paleoceanographic records is especially well suited to questions associated with north Atlantic climate, such as:

- How did centennial-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation vary during the Common Era?
- Was this variability externally forced?
- How confidently can the aforementioned questions be answered with the existing proxy network?
- What additional data will most increase that confidence?

PSR2k seeks to address these questions by combining proxy records in the Ocean2k metadatabase and the output from isotope-enabled and traditional GCM simulations using a PSR approach.

Furthermore, pseudoproxy experiments (PPEs) will be used to identify the optimal observing networks for marine Common Era climate.

Our specific goals are to:

1. Generate a physically realistic centennial-scale PSR-based picture of AMOC and NAM variability throughout the Common Era, including the MCA and LIA, using proxy system modeling and marine proxy data, including oxygen isotope (δ18O) records.

2. Perform sensitivity tests that determine the skill of PSRs and therefore which features of Common Era climate are most robust.

3. Use GCM control simulations and last millennium runs to assess the likelihood that the robust features of Common Era climate were externally forced.

4. Conduct PPEs to identify (given assumptions) the sites from which new/replicated proxy records will most reduce the uncertainty of PSR-based AMOC estimates.