PAGES Solar Forcing Working Group 2nd workshop - Presentations and posters

Constraining Solar Forcing by “Detection and Attribution” for the Holocene

Meeting participants

, 2014

Presentations and posters from the 2nd PAGES Solar Forcing Working Group Workshop held in Davos, Switzerland from 20 - 23 May 2014.

Because one of the key results of the first Solar Forcing workshop in 2012 was that at present improvements in quantifying solar forcing based on solar observations and solar models do not look promising, during the second workshop the main focus was put on terrestrial paleo-climatic records and their potential to constrain the responsible solar forcing using appropriate climate models.

The main conclusions from the second workshop are:

1. It is well established when solar forcing was strong and when it was weak. However, based on the available solar information it is not possible to quantify how large these forcing changes are in Wm-2. This may change in the next decades if the sun enters a new grand minimum as expected by most predictions.

2. Detection and attribution of solar forcing is difficult because:
a. it interferes with volcanic forcing and internal variability
b. climate models respond differently to the same forcing changes and often do not consider solar spectral changes and atmospheric chemistry
c. using hemispheric or global mean values averages out all changes in climate patterns and climate shifts and therefore makes detection of solar forcing even more difficult

3. There is a rapidly growing number of high resolution paleorecords (e.g. speleothems) which show strong evidence for solar forcing at least for certain periods.

4. Using climate models to identify the most sensitive regions for solar forcing and selecting time intervals with only little volcanic activity may provide a much better solar signal.

5. Using the characteristic solar cycles (87-y Gleissberg, 207-y deVries) is another promising idea to detect a weak solar signal in a noisy system.

The presentations and posters at the meeting were divided into the following three themes:



Bradley R - What do Holocene paleoclimate records tell us about solar forcing? >pdf

Fleitmann D - Evidence for Solar Forcing in Holocene Climate Records >pdf

Luterbacher J - New evidence of European summer temperature reconstructions for the past 2000 years; proxies, reconstructions and model data comparison >pdf

Muscheler R - Uncertainties in solar activity reconstructions and possible effects on attribution studies >pdf

Solomina O et al. - HoLOCENE GlacierS: Attempt of Global Overview >pdf

Wanner H - What triggered Holocene climate swings? More questions than answers... >pdf


Abdul M, Brönnimann S & Stickler A - Validation of Atmosphere Ocean Chemistry Climate Model SOCOL-MPIOM (AOCCM SOCOL-MPIOM ) for All Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) and Potential Solar Signals >pdf

Ukraintseva VV - Climates of Past and Prediction of Future Climate Changes: Integrated Approach >pdf



Muthers S - This is not about solar or how ozone modulates the dynamic response to large tropical volcanic eruptions >pdf

Raible C - Forcing Imprints on Circulation Modes during the Last Millennium Rozanov E - Future and Past influence of the solar activity on ozone and climate (FUPSOL) >pdf

Rozanov E - Future and Past influence of the solar activity on ozone and climate (FUPSOL) >pdf

Schurer A et al. - Detection and Attribution of the role of solar and other forcings over the last millennium >pdf


Arsenovic P et al. - Planned long-term simulations of the future climate with AOCCM-SOCOL >pdf

Sandeep K, Shankar R & Warrier AK - Palaeorainfall variations during the late Holocene in tropical southern India: A possible solar influence? >pdf



Shapiro A - Modelling of the SSI and TSI variability >pdf

Woods T - Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI) Observations >pdf


Adams W, Shapiro A & Schmutz W - FUPSOL Subproject A: TSI and SSI modelling for years 1800–2200 >pdf

Wehrli C, Schmutz W & Shapiro A - Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI) correlation with solar activity as measured by VIRGO >pdf





Category: Posters & presentations