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Risk KAN webinar

Date:
16.04.2020  
Times:
14:00-16:00
Venue:
Online
Contact person:
Colin Raymond, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Website:
https://futureearth.org/networks...

The Compound Events working group of the Future Earth Risk KAN will hold its first webinar on Thursday 16 April 2020 at 14:00 UTC (16:00 CET, 10:00 EDT, 7:00 PDT).

Description

Compound Events co-chairs Colin Raymond and Kai Kornhuber would like to invite you and interested colleagues to attend the first in a regular series of webinars as part of the Risk KAN: Compound Events group activities.

Organizers envision these as a way of learning about new ideas and diverse perspectives within the compound-events space, and to spark cross-project and cross-disciplinary discussions.

Ideally, as time goes by, these webinars could become like a "round-robin", where more and more scientists are able to share their work with the group.

Instructions

A Zoom link will be distributed the day before.

Program

14:00: Introduction to series; allotted time for resolution of any technical issues
14:10: Dan Cooley (Colorado State Univ) - Compound events from a statistics perspective: Multivariate extremes
14:40: Marleen de Ruiter (VU Amsterdam) - Consecutive disasters and the asynergies of disaster risk reduction measures

Abstracts

Dan Cooley: Compound Events from a Statistics Perspective: Multivariate Extremes

This presentation will introduce ideas which underlie multivariate extreme value statistical analysis. We will talk about an approach for assessing the probability of a jointly large event, and discuss the notion of asymptotic (in)dependence. We will also talk about the challenge of doing multivariate extremes in high dimensions.

Marleen de Ruiter: Consecutive disasters and the asynergies of disaster risk reduction measures

In recent decades, a striking number of countries have suffered from consecutive disasters: events whose impacts overlap both spatially and temporally, while recovery is still under way. The risk of consecutive disasters will increase due to growing exposure, the interconnectedness of human society and the increased frequency and intensity of non-tectonic hazard.

The number of studies presenting theoretical frameworks to assess multi-risk is growing. While a large body of literature addresses multi-risk based on the spatial overlap between the exposure of different hazard types faced by one particular area, the temporal aspect of sequential hazards has been studied to a much lesser extent. Yet, neglecting the residual risk from the impact of consecutive hazards can lead to a strong bias in the total risk.

We provide an extensive overview of the different types of consecutive disasters, their causes and impacts. The impacts can be distinctly different from disasters occurring in isolation (both spatially and temporally) from other disasters, noting that full isolation never occurs. Furthermore, we use existing empirical disaster databases to show the global probabilistic occurrence for selected hazard types.

We highlight one specific challenge in the realm of consecutive disasters. Traditionally, building-level disaster risk reduction measures are aimed at a single natural hazard.  Building-level disaster risk reduction measures that aim to decrease vulnerability to one hazard type can have opposing or conflicting effects on that of another hazard type, and vice versa. In a case study of Afghanistan, we assess the asynergies of residential building-level DRR measures directed to decrease the risk of floods and earthquakes. We use this to identify districts for which DRR measures of one hazard increase the risk of another hazard.

Further information

As a reminder, these webinars will be complemented by a periodic mailing list of news and recent papers, and by in-person meet-ups at major conferences, whenever they next take place.

Find out more about the Risk KAN and Future Earth.

To join the mailing list (and to receive the Zoom link), please contact Compound Events co-chairs Colin Raymond: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. and Kai Kornhuber: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.